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New Playoff Format

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gatorman-uf

Well-Known Member
Jul 28, 2006
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I ran a simulation based on the new playoff format for Classification 7A, Region 1... I don't like the new system that goes into effect next year. I think it is overly complicated for what the goal should be. The FHSAA membership disagrees, so be it. My position has not changed we need to create a promotion/relegation system that pushes better teams up the ladder and worse ones down until they can be successful.

District Champs/Runner Up Under Current System
Lincoln/Leon
Lee/Columbia
Buchholz/Bartram Trail
Ocoee/Hagerty

Under the Simulation
1) Ocoee vs Oakleaf/Columbia
2) Buchholz vs Bartram Trail
3) Lee vs Fletcher
4) Lincoln vs Hagerty

Ocoee High School 39
Buchholz High School 38.8889
Lee High School 38.75
Hagerty High School 38
Fletcher High School 37.7778
Bartram Trail High School 37.5
Lincoln High School 37.5
Columbia High School 37.2222
Oakleaf High School 37.2222
West Port High School 36.1111
East Ridge High School 36
Leon High School 35.625
Fleming Island High School 35.5556
Lake Howell High School 33.5
Chiles High School 32.2222
First Coast High School 32.2222
Atlantic Coast High School 31.5
Edgewater High School 30
Lake Minneola High School 29.5
Creekside High School 29.4444

Now, the new system is funky and weird.
1), I can't actually break the tie between Oakleaf and Columbia as they have the same # of category 1 wins (0) and same # of category 1 and 2 wins (2). There is no next tie breaker, so who earns the 8th spot is a mystery.

2) CHS (which beat Fletcher in the regular season) ends up being pushed potentially out. Two of our first round games are rematches (real excitement there for a first round match).

3) If we assume Columbia gets the spot, then the old system provided 7 of the 8 that would have gotten in anyway (only Leon stays home).

Link to Data
 
We were about to have IMG replace Bolles week had our superintendent not blocked the game from happening

How would that have changed the points?
 
Columbiahighfan1 said:
We were about to have IMG replace Bolles week had our superintendent not blocked the game from happening

How would that have changed the points?
Click to expand...

Assuming a loss to IMG, your average would have dropped further and you would be out of the playoffs.
 
Your average was a 37.22222 before your imaginary game against IMG.
You would earn 35 points for a Category 1 loss to IMG.
If 35 is below your current average, it would bring your average down. That is how averages work. And Yes, I know you receive points for losses.
 
Because I don't have anything set up and am starting from scratch, this is taking a while.

But I have finished a simulation for Classification 1A. They will have no districts next year so this is actually more meaningful than 7A.

Region 1
  1. Baker High School 39.5 * Playoff
  2. Northview High School 37.5 * Playoff
  3. Holmes County High School 35.5
  4. Graceville High School 35 * Playoff
  5. Cottondale High School 34.5 * Playoff
  6. Vernon High School 34
  7. Wewahitchka High School 32
  8. Sneads High School 31.66667
  9. Jay High School 30.5
Region 2
  1. South Walton High School 38.88889
  2. Blountstown High School 38 *Playoff
  3. Port St. Joe High School 37.22222 *Playoff
  4. Freeport High School 37
  5. West Gadsden High School 36.5 * Playoff
  6. Bozeman School 35
  7. Chipley High School 33 * Playoff
  8. Liberty County High School 30.55556
  9. Franklin County Middle/High School 28
Region 3
  1. Madison County High School 42.22222 * Playoff
  2. Fort White High School 38.5 * Playoff
  3. Baldwin Middle-Senior High School 35.5 * Playoff
  4. Union County High School 35.5
  5. Lafayette High School 35
  6. Hawthorne Middle/High School 34.44444
  7. Hamilton County High School 33.88889 * Playoff
  8. Hilliard Middle-Senior High School 33.33333
  9. Bell High School 30.5
  10. Jefferson County Middle/High School 30
Region 4
  1. Pahokee Middle-Senior High School 42 *Playoff
  2. Trenton Middle/High School 40.55556 * Playoff
  3. Newberry High School 40 *Playoff
  4. Frostproof M/S High School 35.5 * Playoff
  5. Williston High School 35
  6. Fort Meade Middle-Senior High School 34.5
  7. Dixie County High School 34.375
  8. Taylor Middle/High School 33.88889
  9. Crescent City High School 33
  10. Chiefland High School 32.5
  11. Branford High School 31.5
Teams in Bold would be facing each other (#1 vs #4, #2 vs #3). Teams with " * Playoff" are teams that are in the playoffs under current system of Champions and Runner Ups.

South Walton is the team that would benefit the most under the new system as they lost a district shootout and were eliminated. Hamilton County would be the biggest loser in this situation. Not only would they be out the playoffs a team they beat Lafayette (Mayo) would be closer to the playoffs than they would.

What this tells me if I was a coach, is schedule very carefully. I will continue to say it, I am not sure I see the benefit in scheduling tough under the new system or even mediocre teams.
 
gatorman-uf said:
I ran a simulation based on the new playoff format for Classification 7A, Region 1... I don't like the new system that goes into effect next year. I think it is overly complicated for what the goal should be. The FHSAA membership disagrees, so be it. My position has not changed we need to create a promotion/relegation system that pushes better teams up the ladder and worse ones down until they can be successful.

District Champs/Runner Up Under Current System
Lincoln/Leon
Lee/Columbia
Buchholz/Bartram Trail
Ocoee/Hagerty

Under the Simulation
1) Ocoee vs Oakleaf/Columbia
2) Buchholz vs Bartram Trail
3) Lee vs Fletcher
4) Lincoln vs Hagerty

Ocoee High School 39
Buchholz High School 38.8889
Lee High School 38.75
Hagerty High School 38
Fletcher High School 37.7778
Bartram Trail High School 37.5
Lincoln High School 37.5
Columbia High School 37.2222
Oakleaf High School 37.2222
West Port High School 36.1111
East Ridge High School 36
Leon High School 35.625
Fleming Island High School 35.5556
Lake Howell High School 33.5
Chiles High School 32.2222
First Coast High School 32.2222
Atlantic Coast High School 31.5
Edgewater High School 30
Lake Minneola High School 29.5
Creekside High School 29.4444

Now, the new system is funky and weird.
1), I can't actually break the tie between Oakleaf and Columbia as they have the same # of category 1 wins (0) and same # of category 1 and 2 wins (2). There is no next tie breaker, so who earns the 8th spot is a mystery.

2) CHS (which beat Fletcher in the regular season) ends up being pushed potentially out. Two of our first round games are rematches (real excitement there for a first round match).

3) If we assume Columbia gets the spot, then the old system provided 7 of the 8 that would have gotten in anyway (only Leon stays home).

Link to Data
Click to expand...


What I found most interesting is that my Hardee team would be the #1 seed in 5a region 3, over undefeated Jesuit, but the power rankings like maxpreps, lazindex, and pinkos has us the lowest ranked of the group and the weakest schedule. Hmmm?
 
It doesn't pay to look at it this year because everyone knew the rules didn't apply. Aside from traditional rivalries that may suffer as a result next year should be the wild west scheduling wise. I do think it is interesting but that is all it is. People will play the game now that they know the rules. As with everything numbers based people will be able to game the system.
 
They did away with the points for scheduling up or down a classification so that will alleviate some of the mess in scheduling.
 
What do you guys think about that? I think the up/down classification points or loss of points made sense. I know it made it more convoluted but if say Manatee High schedules a good Cardinal Mooney team with a 7+ win record, that they should beat they get the same points as playing and defeating Plant or Armwood. And if Mooney wins they get the same points as Manatee would have gotten.
 
Bradentonian said:
What do you guys think about that? I think the up/down classification points or loss of points made sense. I know it made it more convoluted but if say Manatee High schedules a good Cardinal Mooney team with a 7+ win record, that they should beat they get the same points as playing and defeating Plant or Armwood. And if Mooney wins they get the same points as Manatee would have gotten.
Click to expand...

I was okay with it I think the smaller classifications were not though as they felt it would be really difficult for them to schedule up... Or you get a school like Tampa Catholic that keeps bigger schools like Leto, Gulf, Blake, Middleton on their schedule that are bigger classification but an easy opponent.
 
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Bradentonian said:
It doesn't pay to look at it this year because everyone knew the rules didn't apply. Aside from traditional rivalries that may suffer as a result next year should be the wild west scheduling wise. I do think it is interesting but that is all it is. People will play the game now that they know the rules. As with everything numbers based people will be able to game the system.
Click to expand...

I doubt it will be too much of a wild west show, which is why I have doubted the idea that this going to encourage teams to schedule other marquee match-ups. The reality is that I don't my Category 1 opponent playing to many hard games because if they lose and become 7-3 than I lose out on points.

Additionally, I think a lot of 5A-8A will still have their district games (3-5 games) and then several local games. Remember, County ADs for these metro areas don't want the dollars leaving the county, so they will continue to insist on only in-county match-ups with special exceptions.
 
My issue with "bonus" points for playing up is that some programs is that it would discourage some long standing rivalries and that some programs tend to go through cycles of being competitive. The last time a system like this was used was in 1999-2000. Districts were larger with only 3 districts per region, which meant that teams with losing records rarely got in. Still had district champs and runner-ups as automatics and only 2 at large spots. The point system was 1 point for each win of each opponent you played regardless of class. You played a team with 8 wins that year, you got 8 points for playing them. The team with 2 wins got you 2 points. And lastly, points were only used to determine a tie-breaker for the at large spots. Otherwise it went on overall record. This was what I was hoping for a return of.
 
HWY, a small 3A school who knows they have the recruiting advantage over its local county opponents could schedule all the lesser schools and get bonus points because they are higher classification even though they are not competitive... For that I agree with you.
 
peezy28 said:
HWY, a small 3A school who knows they have the recruiting advantage over its local county opponents could schedule all the lesser schools and get bonus points because they are higher classification even though they are not competitive... For that I agree with you.
Click to expand...

I think there should be a limit on roster size and number of transfers a school can accept, or else play in class 8A. Otherwise the purpose of why we have classification in the first place is compromised. The NCAA does this with the number of scholarships allowed, and as I recall, when I was in school there was a limit on roster size.
 
HWY
This is why classifications need to be changed.
Force good teams to move up a classification, force bad teams to move down a classification. (Not counting 1A or 2A).
Eventually, the very best teams will rise to 8A and bad teams will move down and become more competitive instead of being blown out from week to week. If your school/boosters is putting tons of money and expects winners, fine move up. Your school is ok with just having the sport, then we can move you down to competitive.

There are lots of different ways to do this, but the idea of promotion and relegation is a must to save high school football.
 
I like Gator man's idea of teams moving up and down classes based on success. I know teams are restricted to 60 players dressed in the playoffs btw
 
Last edited:
gatorman-uf said:
HWY
This is why classifications need to be changed.
Force good teams to move up a classification, force bad teams to move down a classification. (Not counting 1A or 2A).
Eventually, the very best teams will rise to 8A and bad teams will move down and become more competitive instead of being blown out from week to week. If your school/boosters is putting tons of money and expects winners, fine move up. Your school is ok with just having the sport, then we can move you down to competitive.

There are lots of different ways to do this, but the idea of promotion and relegation is a must to save high school football.
Click to expand...


I see where you are coming from, but not sure I totally agree. What I have issue with is how FHSAA as basically made recruiting legal through schoool choice. While I support a parents right to choice which school their child attends for academic reasons, sports are extra-curricula. Certain people come on here and brag how many transfers they get. Too me this compromises why we have classification, and also favors intercity and metro area schools over rural schools in the lower classes in particular. Have you ever noticed how the lower classes use to be dominated by small towns like Glades, Live Oak, Lake Butler? Also to what degree would you define success and need to move up or down? Avon Park and South Sumter have very good 4a programs but don't exactly get a ton of transfers and I don't think it would be fair for either to be forced to play a 5a or 6a schedule. Likewise, George Jenkins is an average at best 8a school but I don't think it would be fair to other schools to drop them down to 5a or 6a. What I really think is that schools should be forced to limit the number of transfers they accept for sports programs. A school that gets a lot of transfers that want to play football will need to make the hard choice and cut some of them or play up.
 
HWY it would be based on win percentage and of course state titles. if a team is consistently going 10-0 they move up . .. if they get up a level and theyou are now a 5-5 team they move down... Trust me GJ has numbers but they'd find it hard competing at 5a 6a even 4a as well.
 
I like the move up or down idea, I also like an unlimited category that the "best of the best" can opt to play in. I don't know who would choose to go that route but it would be interesting to try out, there would have to be a low end so if only 6 teams joined it wouldn't happen that year and they would need to play in their population A.
 
peezy28 said:
HWY it would be based on win percentage and of course state titles. if a team is consistently going 10-0 they move up . .. if they get up a level and theyou are now a 5-5 team they move down... Trust me GJ has numbers but they'd find it hard competing at 5a 6a even 4a as well.
Click to expand...

Playing a single game is one thing, playing a 10 game schedule outside your class is different. Sure, good teams from smaller classes can and do win against larger class schools, however should a good 4a or 5a team that wins thier district every year be forced to play schools with double their enrollment and teams with twice their roster size? My 5a school usually has a 45-50 player roster every year. Yes, we have played and won against 7a and 8a teams before but I don't think it would be right to have to play them every week because sooner or later a player or two is going to get injured and my team has to find a 9th or 10th grader to fill the spot. Using that reasoning, should Mount Union College be forced to play the likes of Alabama or Michigan because they dominate the lower class of college football? Likewise, taking a not so good 8a program and putting them down in class isn't fair either. My observation of most big schools that don't win much isn't because of a lack of talent on the field, it usually is due to coaching as these schools tend to change coaches often. Now when a school manipulates its size by letting in transfers, that's different.
 
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First, it is the Republican-led state legislature that allows the transfers not the FHSAA. Not much the FHSAA can do.

I think of it more this way, if Miami Central and Armwood have been dominating at the 6A level, maybe it because the competition is too easy. They should move up a class. If they perform just as well at 7A, let them move up to 8A. In my ideal world it would take nearly 4 years for those two teams to go from 6A to 8A. (2 years in 6A, 2 years in 7A).

I think of schools like Forest Hills in West Palm Beach, Stanton and Paxton in Jacksonville. These schools play at a level that is not competitive for them. They struggle to get players and then continue to struggle on the field. This doesn't encourage kids to get involved in football. This doesn't get more attendance because people know you aren't going to win.

Over the long haul, great programs would move up and face other great programs (based on size and competitiveness). But if a school like South Sumter (4A) maybe they move up to 5A, because of their abilities, but if they get to 5A and no longer are a dominant team, but still a good team that is ok as well. They won't move to 6A because we have found a equilibrium for them.

At the same point, maybe a school like Stanton Prep moves down from 5A to 4A and maybe to 3A. Sure there population suggests they are twice the size of a 3A school, but their abilities are not twice as good. So let them be competitive.

As for your Mount Union suggestion, I would argue that Mount Union should move up one to Division II. I am not suggesting that Mount Union joins the Big 10 or SEC, but moves up to a more competitive. If you look at Boise State football, they started their path in Division II in 1973 and have slowly moved up the competitiveness rankings to (Division 1-AA, and now Division 1).
 
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gatorman-uf said:
First, it is the Republican-led state legislature that allows the transfers not the FHSAA. Not much the FHSAA can do.

I think of it more this way, if Miami Central and Armwood have been dominating at the 6A level, maybe it because the competition is too easy. They should move up a class. If they perform just as well at 7A, let them move up to 8A. In my ideal world it would take nearly 4 years for those two teams to go from 6A to 8A. (2 years in 6A, 2 years in 7A).

I think of schools like Forest Hills in West Palm Beach, Stanton and Paxton in Jacksonville. These schools play at a level that is not competitive for them. They struggle to get players and then continue to struggle on the field. This doesn't encourage kids to get involved in football. This doesn't get more attendance because people know you aren't going to win.

Over the long haul, great programs would move up and face other great programs (based on size and competitiveness). But if a school like South Sumter (4A) maybe they move up to 5A, because of their abilities, but if they get to 5A and no longer are a dominant team, but still a good team that is ok as well. They won't move to 6A because we have found a equilibrium for them.

At the same point, maybe a school like Stanton Prep moves down from 5A to 4A and maybe to 3A. Sure there population suggests they are twice the size of a 3A school, but their abilities are not twice as good. So let them be competitive.

As for your Mount Union suggestion, I would argue that Mount Union should move up one to Division II. I am not suggesting that Mount Union joins the Big 10 or SEC, but moves up to a more competitive. If you look at Boise State football, they started their path in Division II in 1973 and have slowly moved up the competitiveness rankings to (Division 1-AA, and now Division 1).
Click to expand...


While the legislature allows voted to allow transfers, the FHSAA still is the regulatory governing authority. They can put limits to it rather that letting it turn into the wild west and virtually making recruiting legal. The concept that schools should be classified based on student population has been around for years and was created for a valid purpose. The more students a school has, the more talent that school has to draw from to field a team. Now, when a program is able to go out and get transfers boosting the overall number of athletes while not significantly affecting their school size, that concept is compromised. Therefore they should be moved up, or better yet, the FHSAA should limit the numbers of transfers a school can take and re-level the playing field. I have no problem when a program dominates its respective classification when doing it with the students that they already have and can even accept it when the transfers in were transfers that moved into that schools zone, but not hoarding up all the athletes from the neighboring schools. But to move a school up a class just because they had a good couple of years doesn't mean that they will continue to dominate. These things go in natural cycles and often times keeping a good coach at a program has a lot to do with it. Charlotte for example consistently wins their district and makes a playoff run in 6a but I don't think they should be forced into 7a because of it. But take a program like Cocoa, they come on here at the start of the season bragging how many transfers in they are getting. To me, they are not a true 4a program and its not fair to the rest of class 4a. Either move them up, or better yet in my opinion, a 4a school shouldn't be receiving in any more than 3 transfers. Just my way of looking at it.

P.S. - Boise State, UCF and several others started at the lower levels but moved up as planned. They planned it and committed their resources to it.
 
HWY,
Simply, the state legislature will never allow a cap on transfers to be a thing. So the FHSAA isn't going to try and battle that.

As for your example of Charlotte, yes. They would probably move up, but part of the argument for the new playoff format is that every game should count. What fun is it when teams are playing teams that have no chance of winning due to a lack of competitiveness? My argument against the new playoff system is that they should have first changed the classification system than changed the playoffs. If Charlotte moved up, but found 7A to be too hard as in they were last in their district, they would eventually be moved back down. That is the beauty of the system. Successful teams move up, unsuccessful move down. Eventually, school size and transfers become less of an issue because you are competing against similar type teams.
 
Earlier in this century many schools played above their assigned classification. Miami Central and Northwestern even won championships in the largest class. Mainland on the other hand tried too but wasn't as successful against the big 60-80 man squads. Hopefully this is just the beginning of the tinkering process to increase competitive results. Time well tell...
 
So Gatorman, let me ask you this : Right now classification and district assignments are done every two years. Schools typically schedule for two years. How would you determine who moves up or down? Would it be based off the prior two years or just one? What trend would need to be established?

Example: Team A goes 3-7 one year and 9-3 the next and are district champs. Do they move up, or stay the same?
Team B goes 8-3 both years, district champs both years, lose out in round 1 both years. Do they move up or stay the same?
Team C, is an usual powerhouse but has a bad year, goes 6-4, then rebounds and goes 12-1. Do they move up or stay the same?
Team D, usually isn't that good but has their best team in years. Go 11-1, but the next year drops back to 3-8. Do they move up or stay the same?
 
Yup based on 2 years of results and based on your scenarios
Team A. Stay the Same (the system works there is parity)
Team B. Stay the Same (system works IMO)
Team C. Stay the Same (System works they are right classed)
Team D. Stay the Same (parity system works).

What this up and down would do is this.

Team A goes 15-0 2 years in a row or 14-1 wins state or goes to state finals or semifinals 2 years straight... Team A moves up.
Team B goes 0-10 1-9 or wins less than 3 games both years... Perenially they have been a loser in that classification... Team B moves down.

What Gator man is saying is not to move teams around like your above scenario... Those teams are in the right class... they win some they lose some there is parity... Its for the teams that never win at their current level or compete and those teams that dominate all competition at their current level.

If you want we can brainstorm and come up with teams in each class that would move up or down based on the last 4 years.
 
peezy28 - I go back to Gatorman's comment above with Charlotte as an example. Teams like Charlotte, Mainland, Lake Gibson, etc that seem to win their district every year but can't get to the state championship because there is an Armwood or Miami Central. Moving them up along with the later penalizes them even though they aren't the dominate team in their respect class, just their region. On the flip side, programs like DeSoto or North Port usually only win 2-4 games a year but ever four or five years will have a team that makes the playoffs. Dropping them down in classification IMO isn't fair to the lower classes.
 
They move up put on their big boy pants and play up... they don't do as well they move back... that's the point of the system it's not penalizing folk for winning it's saying we think really highly of you and that you can compete.

Everything your arguing is exactly why I would like doing the up downs based on success... So your making an argument for me...
 
So....Charlotte, Naples, Lake Gibson, Mainland, it wasn't right that you were district champs and regional champs every year but still can't win it all. As a result, you will get moved to 7a so you can be runner-up at best to teams like Venice, Braden River, Plant, Lakeland or Viera. If not, you might get lucky to get a wildcard spot, either way, you still have Armwood and Miami Central to deal with if not Aquinas. But don't worry, after a couple of years of mediocrity it will be Palmetto and Sebring's turn.

Avon Park - its not fair that all the other 4a teams in your district suck. You get moved to 5a. You'll be fine as long as you stay injury free. You still won't get far in the playoffs. Bradenton Bayshore gets to take your place in 4a. They'll probably be a wildcard team there.
 
Bingo... that's exactly how I like it...

If your in the state semifinals/finals every year (Central, Armwood, STA, Booker T, Bolles, Trinity, CCC, TC, etc etc etc.) Guess what you just wore your big boy pants move on up to All Madden level and challenge yourself.

Its football... I guess where I am from you just played whoever they lined up against you you didn't care how big fast or tall they were and how many players they had on their team... I've told this story many many times but I really have no sympathy from teams who are soft and afraid to play bigger teams when I played Iron man on a team that ended the season with 15 players with 1 being a female and 1 being worse than the female.

Charlotte will be okay... Who knows maybe the step up to the challenge and beat some of those teams... They used to compete with STA why not?
 
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