Lazindex 2024 PLAYOFF FORECAST - STATE CHAMPIONSHIPS

[LAZL]

Last Week 13 - 3

CLASS 7A
Venice	over	Lake Mary +3
CLASS 6A
West Boca Raton	over	Osceola (Kissimmee) +2
CLASS 5A
St. Thomas Aquinas (Fort Lauderdale)	over	Lakeland +2
CLASS 4A
American Heritage (Plantation)	over	Jones (Orlando) +9
CLASS 3A
Miami Northwestern	over	Raines (Jacksonville) +3
CLASS 2A
Gadsden County (Havana)	over	Cocoa +6
CLASS 1A
Chaminade (Hollywood)	over	Clearwater Central Catholic +3

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[gatorman001]

Pretty conservative spreads in some of these contests. I also see Cocoa being a favorite in 2A.....just some random thoughts

 

[LAZL]

Pretty conservative spreads in some of these contests. I also see Cocoa being a favorite in 2A.....just some random thoughts

I completely agree. These games could go either way but there's absolutely no bias here. It's all the computer. This is where lack of schedule connectivity really comes into play. We'll see what happens.

 

[MarkECannon]

Having just purchased a ticket to each game I like these point spreads:

7A Can’t argue with that
6A Same
5A Same. Interestingly my excitement for this game is rather low. Maybe this board has been turning me into a Manatee fan so I’m disappointed they aren’t in it. Hope my Sailors don’t see this.
4A +9 Jones sounds about right. Will be cheering for Jones to play their A game.
3A +3 Raines sounds about right. Would love to see Raines play well. I know people in Jax that think they have a good shot.
2A If Cocoa plays like it did against Mooney Gadsden is in trouble. Gadsen is supposed to be big, athletic and physical. If I was a betting man I would take Cocoa with the points.
1A Chaminade is a bunch of cowards. Show some class and play in one of the 5A-7A classes. What a farce!

 

[MarkECannon]

You know, after my criticism of Chaminade-Madonna’s continuous domination in Class 1A I felt maybe I had been a little harsh in my criticism. After sitting in the stands tonight experiencing watching the Lions dominate CCC again 42-7 I am doubling down on my criticism. Honestly, challenge your kids and your coaches. At the very least partition to move up to 2A. You would’ve had to play Cocoa in the semi’s and Gadsden County in the finals. Wouldn’t you get more satisfaction from beating those teams than what you faced this year? Come on! Think about it.

 

[MarkECannon]

Tampa Bay Tech was better than Lakeland. Niceville let Lakeland off the hook. Give the Dreadnaughts credit. They found ways to win both of those games. Unfortunately, the chickens came home to roost. Aquinas dominated Lakeland tonight 34-0. There was plenty of blame to go around but the coaching staff had a bad night. This was worse than the Chaminade game.

The Cocoa vs Gadsden game was worth the price of admission. It was so entertaining that I considered not going to the game in the previous paragraph (I’ve been fighting a cold for almost 3 weeks and still suffering the aftermath). If you get a chance to watch it on YouTube I recommend it. The Gadsden fans were so happy to be there some of them were saying hi to you, maybe shake your hand and in general were very polite. In the second half, Gadsden went for it on 4th down inside their own 30 which failed. It gave Cocoa a short field to go up 2 scores. Gadsden chased Cocoa showing a lot of heart but the Tigers were able to hold them off to win 38-27. Cocoa’s superior QB and skill players were on display in the final quarter.

 

[gatorman001]

Tampa Bay Tech was better than Lakeland. Niceville let Lakeland off the hook. Give the Dreadnaughts credit. They found ways to win both of those games. Unfortunately, the chickens came home to roost. Aquinas dominated Lakeland tonight 34-0. There was plenty of blame to go around but the coaching staff had a bad night. This was worse than the Chaminade game.

The Cocoa vs Gadsden game was worth the price of admission. It was so entertaining that I considered not going the game in the previous paragraph (I’ve been fighting a cold for almost 3 weeks and still suffering the aftermath). If you get a chance to watch it on YouTube I recommend it. The Gadsden fans were so happy to be there some of them were saying hi to you, maybe shake your hand and in general were very polite. In the second half, Gadsden went for it on 4th down inside their own 30 which failed. It gave Cocoa a short field to go up 2 scores. Gadsden chased Cocoa showing a lot of heart but the Tigers were able to hold them off to win 38-27. Cocoa’s superior QB and skill players were on display in the final quarter.

Mark called it last friday night at Hawkins Stadium and I at that instant immediately dismissed his thoughts as just not possible. Mark said the following: "You know Tom, we may have just wittnessed the 5A state Championship tonight" But the reality is the Manatee/STA game was a helluva lot more entertaining as well as more competitive than last night's STA/Lakeland title game.

Wondering to myself was Lakeland's performance last year, more indicative of a Lakeland team still loaded with Bill Castles boys, similar to how Manatee's year playing to the semis following Kinnan retirement was? Because prior to Manatee's game last week, Manatee hasnt sniffed the semis since the year following Kinnan's retirement. Will be interesting to see How Manatee's head coach handles next season, rebuilding a defense and infusing a offense with new skilled talent? Or how Lakeland's head coach handles things with what for all practical purposes will be his boys and not Castles Boys at this point?

 

[Fla2014]

Chaminade/CCC: I agree that Chaminade is head and shoulders above the rest of the classification but until they increase enrollment, they will stay in 1A and continue to beat the pulp out of CCC unfortunately.

GC/Cocoa: That was a really good game. I love the contrast of styles. Cocoa's Air Attack versus GC's ground and pound. GC had their chances to steal the win. Cocoa has a very nice offense.

Lakeland/STA: I really would have rather seen some new blood in this game with Niceville vs Manatee. Lakeland laid an egg in this game. Lakelands lack of offense really showed. It works apparently if they were 13-0 but it looked very basic and ineffective against STA.

 

[MarkECannon]

Venice is the most organized team I’ve seen in high school football ever. Their sideline is ready for any situation. It allows them to keep the opposing team off balance such as when deciding to go for it on 4th down or punt. Norvell, Napier and Cristobal need to visit Peacock to study how they do it.

 

[gatorman001]

Venice is most organized team I’ve seen in high school football ever. Their sideline is ready for any situation. It allows them to keep the opposing team off balance such as when deciding to go for it on 4th down or punt. Norvell, Napier and Cristobal need to visit Peacock to study how they do it.

Peacock goes for it on 4th down percentage wise, probably more than any other team in the entire country, to say nothing of the number of times he kick the onsides. I saw him kick a onsides 4 consecutive times against Cocoa this year......recovering 3 of the 4 attempts. The QB for Venice did not have his best game today. To be honest the only team to slow Venice down offensively this season was IMG in a loss.

 

[MarkECannon]

If Raines loses tonight they will remember they failed to cash in on 2 TD opportunities. They are playing well but not closing their deals.

 

[gatorman001]

If Raines loses tonight they will remember they failed to cash in on 2 TD opportunities. They are playing well but not closing their deals.

This Northwestern team lost to state champ Venice in OT during the regular season. Chaminade and Northwestern were both teams that needed to playup in classification, the disparity for both teams on a competitve level was that wide.

 

[gatorman001]

This Northwestern team lost to state champ Venice in OT during the regular season. Chaminade and Northwestern were both teams that needed to playup in classification, the disparity for both teams on a competitve level was that wide.

Was also why I didnt bother watching either play for its respective state title, I knew what the outcomes for both games were going to be......the only real question was by how much?

 

[MarkECannon]

After having 2 state finals with the Metro and Suburban system that resulted in mostly competitive games we go back to a similar system that was in place and we get the same non competitive finals complete with blowouts. Brilliant move (sarcasm font)!

I enjoyed the finals this year. I didn’t make it last year so it was great to get back to it. Except for the FIU turf needing to be replaced the stadium was excellent. There are plenty of things to do in Miami but really if you are there to see all the games like I did you really don’t have time to. Traffic was as expected but when you figure how to get around it really wasn’t much of an issue. My hotel was next to a pretty good Cuban restaurant so I enjoyed that. Topped the whole 4 days off with some delicious flan. I swear my stomach is Cuban. All in all I really enjoyed myself. The FHSAA signed a contract to have the finals at FIU the next 2 years. Unless I move to Pensacola I’m fine with that.

 

[gatorman001]

After having 2 state finals with the Metro and Suburban system that resulted in mostly competitive games we go back to a similar system that was in place and we get the same non competitive finals complete with blowouts. Brilliant move (sarcasm font)!

I enjoyed the finals this year. I didn’t make it last year so it was great to get back to it. Except for the FIU turf needing to be replaced the stadium was excellent. There are plenty of things to do in Miami but really if you are there to see all the games like I did you really don’t have time to. Traffic was as expected but when you figure how to get around it really wasn’t much of an issue. My hotel was next to a pretty good Cuban restaurant so I enjoyed that. Topped the whole 4 days off with some delicious flan. I swear my stomach is Cuban. All in all I really enjoyed myself. The FHSAA signed a contract to have the finals at FIU the next 2 years. Unless I move to Pensacola I’m fine with that.

I reviewed the attendance figures except for last years, and attendance in general has dropped on a game to game basis over time. Logic or general business sense doesn't in my mind seem to be the governing principle with how the FHSAA does things. In fact after talking to you and peezy personally, the FHSAA strikes me as a exclusive club, hell bent on ignoring suggestions and/or oversight from outside individuals.

The folks running this association made up of primarily smaller schools, if ran and marketed properly long term could become a economic force that could eventually force the FHSAA to take notice. To me it's the means by which change for the better could happen for more competitive high school sports in florida and the FHSAA is left with only those programs that actively recruit and compete among just a limited number of programs.

 

[MarkECannon]

IMO, Teddy Bridgewater’s Bulls of Miami Northwestern were the best team this year. Venice would be a close 2nd but MNW’s overall talent, and physicality would rule the day. I know, I know, Venice beat them at Powell-Davis Stadium 48-42 in OT on August 30th, the 2nd game of the season. Also, I believe that if Venice played the Bulls 10 times Venice would win 3 maybe 4 times.

The 3A championship game was the last game before retirement for the head referee. He said that MNW was the fastest most physical team he officiated. As you know I was there. I witnessed it. Their defense dished out the most violent hits from the very first play. Raines ran a zone read, I know shocking, on the first play from scrimmage. A Bull defender, who must have not been blocked, ran right over the QB just has he completed the handoff. The smack delivered could be heard over the whole stadium. It looked light a truck running over . . well, you get the picture.

It almost seems unfair to think a 10 year NFL QB with 15,260 passing yards is coaching a high school team with this much talent. It is Bridgewater’s 2nd year at the helm. His students have learned well. The MNW offense ran and passed its way down the field bringing to mind a NFL offense. Not exactly fair right? Then, when the opportunity arose a top flight receiver with top speed streaks down the sideline beating your corner then catching a perfectly in stride pass. Say what you want and it’s not really but it is unfair. All your school must do is go out and hire their own 10 year NFL QB with over 15,000 career passing yards.

I’m not criticizing what is going on at MNW. I am praising what they accomplished this year. Teddy Bridgewater is an alumnus of MNW which only makes their story even better. I have nothing but praise for the Venice team this year after what they did to Lake Mary in their game Friday afternoon. I was ready to proclaim them the best team in the state. The Indians can claim scoreboard and that cannot be diminished. Man, would I love to see the Bulls vs the Indians one more time.

 

[Fla2014]

Now that the season is officially over, we can see the dust settled. Venice played 4 teams that were in the state championship (Gasden County, Miami NW, Cocoa, and Clearwater Central Catholic). Raines HS was 13-0 entering the championship game and lost 41-0. They played a soft schedule, and it showed. They barely escaped the Booker game. I think the drop in attendance numbers is due to the games being watched online. Moving forward, Booker has most of their team coming back, they need to beef up their schedule to prepare them for a deep playoff run. The only thing in their way is losing their top players to Venice. I expect CM and Venice to do as they normally do. Sarasota will have growing pains, but if they play a modest schedule like Palmetto did, they can continue to progress. Riverview will struggle but I think they will soften their schedule, but I don't see them making any type of playoff run.

 

[MarkECannon]

Fla2014, thanks for your Sarasota County breakdown. Your comment about Booker, and this goes for everybody, possibly losing their players to Venice interests me. I would imagine Cardinal Mooney is as much a threat as Venice.

My question to you is what is your opinion of Booker’s coaching staff? How much of their recent success is because of coaching and/or talent? How would you describe the coaching at Booker vs Venice?

 

[gatorman001]

IMO, Teddy Bridgewater’s Bulls of Miami Northwestern were the best team this year. Venice would be a close 2nd but MNW’s overall talent, and physicality would rule the day. I know, I know, Venice beat them at Powell-Davis Stadium 48-42 in OT on August 30th, the 2nd game of the season. Also, I believe that if Venice played the Bulls 10 times Venice would win 3 maybe 4 times.

The 3A championship game was the last game before retirement for the head referee. He said that MNW was the fastest most physical team he officiated. As you know I was there. I witnessed it. Their defense dished out the most violent hits from the very first play. Raines ran a zone read, I know shocking, on the first play from scrimmage. A Bull defender, who must have not been blocked, ran right over the QB just has he completed the handoff. The smack delivered could be heard over the whole stadium. It looked light a truck running over . . well, you get the picture.

It almost seems unfair to think a 10 year NFL QB with 15,260 passing yards is coaching a high school team with this much talent. It is Bridgewater’s 2nd year at the helm. His students have learned well. The MNW offense ran and passed its way down the field bringing to mind a NFL offense. Not exactly fair right? Then, when the opportunity arose a top flight receiver with top speed streaks down the sideline beating your corner then catching a perfectly in stride pass. Say what you want and it’s not really but it is unfair. All your school must do is go out and hire their own 10 year NFL QB with over 15,000 career passing yards.

I’m not criticizing what is going on at MNW. I am praising what they accomplished this year. Teddy Bridgewater is an alumnus of MNW which only makes their story even better. I have nothing but praise for the Venice team this year after what they did to Lake Mary in their game Friday afternoon. I was ready to proclaim them the best team in the state. The Indians can claim scoreboard and that cannot be diminished. Man, would I love to see the Bulls vs the Indians one more time.

Probably my biggest regret of the 2024 season, was sitting in the parking lot pre-game of the Venice/MNW contest. It began to rain a little on the heavy side. Wife and I had sat through a torrential rain storm a few years back for a Manatee/Venice game. With that in mind we looked at each other and decided it wasn't Manatee playing, neither of us was willing to get drenched for teams we don't really support.....so I started the truck and we went home. I found out later the rain stopped probably 30 minutes later and we missed a classic OT game.....Wish now I had stayed to see that game.

 

[gatorman001]

Fla2014, thanks for your Sarasota County breakdown. Your comment about Booker, and this goes for everybody, possibly losing their players to Venice interests me. I would imagine Cardinal Mooney is as much a threat as Venice.

My question to you is what is your opinion of Booker’s coaching staff? How much of their recent success is because of coaching and/or talent? How would you describe the coaching at Booker vs Venice?

You and I have discussed the Venice staff of recent years. I believe Peacock has elevated his level of coaching, from what it was during the Joe Kinnan era. Having said that, I would also have to say Peacock has also elevated his ability to bring talent from outside the immediate Venice HS school zone during that same period. How many consecutive years now has Peacock brough in QB talent from the Hilsborough County area.......3??? In the USPS when sitting down a employee to discuss their individual attendence, I used call something like that a unmistakable "Pattern" Want to also add, that the best HS football stadium atmosphere I attended this past season, was without a doubt the one I wittnessed at Venice HS!!!!.......(and I really despise the Venice football program)

Little in my mind is more about luring talent to Booker, than coaching at this point and it subsequently caused him to draw the negative attention of the FHSAA. I agree as you suggested Little would do well to step up the level of competition, when looking to fill out his 2025 regular season schedule.

Last year and this year the Sarasota Riverview JV team wasn't nearly as strong as it had been in years prior. I watch JV football, only as a means to get a feel for what's happening inside a school's individual program....Riverview has also seen it develop talent, only to see it transfer to Venice HS the last couple of years. That's troubling looking from the outside in, in as far as trying to determine what dynamics are going on that Riverview is developing major talent....only to see it transfer out? So for me, I have to wonder if this trend of of losing talent to other programs continues next year?

Cardinal Mooney returns a lot of talent, at this point I see the coaching staff being fixed heading into next year. Mooney believe or not has had Venice come poach much of its talent in years prior. Not sure if that happened this past year, playing for state titles can in its self be enough draw to keep programs like Venice at bay in as far as the lure to play else where. Thing about Cardinal Mooney is, does the administration want the Mooney football program to elevate its footprint in the Sarasota/Manatee county area? It's in the unique position as a private school to do things to make those considerations a reality if so?

 

[MarkECannon]

When LeBron James said “I am taking my talents to South Beach” that changed our culture. You may strongly disagree with me but I guarantee that statement changed the hearts and minds of parents thinking it is a priority for my child to transfer to another school so they can play with other talented players so my child will win championships and get a college scholarship. Can you blame the parents that think this way? Just imagine thinking my child has the potential to be very successful playing for a winning team. I get to sit in the stands with my child’s number and name on it. I get to go around town and talk about all the success my child is experiencing. Some day I will get to wear the college team’s shirt my child plays for with their number and name on it. When we watch Sportscenter we might see my child during the highlights. If the child earns the scholarship we won’t be on the hook for their room, board and tuition. Now there is NIL money. We might even be able to go ahead and retire.

I personally had a son that was so highly thought about athletically he started to be recruited by high schools in 5th grade. It continued all the time in different sports until it turned out he wasn’t interested in sports that much when he got to high school. As a parent it wasn’t easy to not get caught up in the attention I was getting from coaches, representatives from the schools and fans of certain schools that wielded power to make things happen. This was before school choice was wide open. This was before LeBron James decided to go to the Miami Heat to form a super team to win an NBA title. I would hope I would stand up to the principles I kept when we went through this with my son. It is almost a whole different world now than when we went through it. My head was spinning some then. If it happened today you guys might have to help put my head back on my neck.

 

[Fla2014]

Fla2014, thanks for your Sarasota County breakdown. Your comment about Booker, and this goes for everybody, possibly losing their players to Venice interests me. I would imagine Cardinal Mooney is as much a threat as Venice.

My question to you is what is your opinion of Booker’s coaching staff? How much of their recent success is because of coaching and/or talent? How would you describe the coaching at Booker vs Venice?

Cardinal Mooney is definitely a threat to poach teams for kids. All of Booker's recent success is due to talent/recruiting. Booker did an amazing job at getting all the kids in their community to come Booker. Those players were teammates throughout youth football. Jamarice "Gator" Wilder #3 for Venice left briefly before this season to come to Booker but he ended up going back to Venice and won another state championship along with MVP. As far as coaching goes, Venice is head & shoulders above Booker. Venice is the best coached team in the state of Florida and in Sarasota. Cardinal Mooney is very well coached also. On paper, Booker has the most talent hands down. If Venice coaching staff coached Booker this year, Booker would have went to the state championship. Venice runs their football program like a college program from top to bottom. There is no way Booker should have lost to Sebring or Riverview. They were out-coached. Booker has the whole team coming back and will make it to the final four off talent alone. They will have to improve their coaching to make it to state.

 

[gatorman001]

When LeBron James said “I am taking my talents to South Beach” that changed our culture. You may strongly disagree with me but I guarantee that statement changed the hearts and minds of parents thinking it is a priority for my child to transfer to another school so they can play with other talented players so my child will win championships and get a college scholarship. Can you blame the parents that think this way? Just imagine thinking my child had the potential to be very successful playing for a winning team. I get to sit in the stands with my child’s number and name on it. I get to go around town and talk about all the success my child is experiencing. Some day I will get to wear the college team’s shirt my child plays for with their number and name on it. When we watch Sportscenter we might see my child during the highlights. If the child earns the scholarship we won’t be on the hook for their room, board and tuition. Now there is NIL money. We might even be able to go ahead and retire.

I personally had a son that was so highly thought about athletically he started to be recruited by high schools in 5th grade. It continued all the time in different sports until it turned out he wasn’t interested in sports that much when he got to high school. As a parent it wasn’t easy to not get caught up in the attention I was getting from coaches, representatives from the schools and fans of certain schools that wielded power to make things happen. This was before school choice was wide open. This was before LeBron James decided to go to the Miami Heat to form a super team to win an NBA title. I would hope I would stand up to the principles I kept when we went through this with my son. It is almost a whole different world than when we went through it. My head was spinning some then. If it happened today you guys might have to help put my head back on my neck.

Lady I worked with in Atlanta, "Jackie Whittening", black woman. single mother......her unique quality was she wore black every single day to work. Her and I became friends or I should say she allowed me into her world, when she saw me go out of my way one afternoon to help another black woman with her car. I was probaly just a few weeks into being thrust into the Atlanta District as a Manager and was pretty much a unknown quanity to her at that point. She had 2 sons, one had become a bit of a basketball phenom at a very early age, his jersey number was #23 <smiles>. As he aged and got into HS, his talent level leveled to where he was more of a 6th man, than the team star. She however has instilled a academic standard with both boys, where both were straight A students and both got academic scholarships to major universities. I always thought that was a unique story with her son, until I read your story about your son in as far as basketball goes.

 

[MarkECannon]

After watching Venice play last week I had the similar thought about Venice’s coaching staff. As a proud alumnus of Sarasota High I admit it pains me to watch this. When I was in school at Sarasota, Venice was that funny little brother of ours that we let win almost never. I digress.