5A Playoffs

[gatorman001]

Before I get into breaking down the 4 regions, I thought it would be interesting to see where everyone stands from a ranking standpoint:

LAZINDEX .................................................CALPREPS ..........................................................FHSAA
1.) Lincoln HS - Region 1...............................1.) Lakeland HS - Region 2 ..................................1.) Lakeland HS - Region 2
2.) Lakeland HS - Region 2........................2.) STA - Region 4 ..................................................2.) Manatee HS - Region 3
3.) Niceville HS - Region 1..........................3.) Manatee HS - Region 3...................................3.) Niceville HS - Region 1
4.) Mosley HS - Region 1.............................4.) Tampa Bay Tech - Region 2............................4.) Lincoln HS - Region 1
5.) Manatee HS - Region 3........................5.) Lincoln HS - Region 1........................................5.) Atlantic HS - Region 4
6.) Tampa Bay Tech - Region 2................6.) Edgewater HS - Region 2.................................6.) Mosley HS - Region 1
7.) STA - Region 4..........................................7.) Atlantic HS - Region 4........................................7.) Ponta Vedra HS - Region 1
8.) Edgewater HS - Region 2....................8.) Niceville HS - Region 1.......................................8.) Edgewater HS - Region 2
9.) Atlantic HS - Region 4..........................9.) Mosley HS - Region 1..........................................9.) Tampa Bay Tech - Region 2
10.) Ponta Vedra HS - Region 1................10.) Ponta Vedra - Region 1....................................10.) STA - Region 4
11.) Gaither HS - Region 2..........................11.) Gaither HS - Region 2.......................................11.) Ely HS - Region 4
12.) Fleming HS - Region 1.........................12.) Ely HS - Region 4...............................................12.) Beachside HS - Region 1
13.) Ely HS - Region 4.................................13.) Fleming HS - Region 1......................................13.) Fleming HS - Region 1
14.) Beachside HS - Region 1...................14.) Beachside HS - Region 1..................................14.) Fort Myers HS - Region 3
15.) Fort Myers HS - Region 3.................15.) Mailland HS - Region 1......................................15.) Riverdale HS - Region 3

Few thing that really sticks out about these polls is 1.) - the number of team from Region 1, that make the top 15 2.) How low STA is ranked in two of the three polls with its 3 regular season losses, despite 2 of those losses coming from nationally ranked top 25 teams, and the 3rd coming to a #62 nationally ranked team. 3.) How weak region 3 is, in as far as over-all repersentation in the top 15.

Who ever comes out of Region 1, will have been battled tested at least twice...possibly 3 times just to take the Region crown. I see Lakeland only being tested once, that being the game for the Region 2 Championship where it will in all probability face the winner of the Tampa Bay Tech/Edgewater game. I stated earlier I dont see anyone, that should challenge Manatee for the Region 3 Championship. Region 4 I see STA tightening the chin straps, and coming out on top for the Region 4 Championship. From there call it just a gut feeling, but I see Lakeland being upset either in its region 2 championship game or in the Semis by the Region 1 Champion. In the Southern Bracket, I want to say Manatee has a defense that could carry it past STA, if it were to play a solid game from start to finish. This defense however has shown a propensity to give up the big play on a number of different ocassions, I dont feel they stay fundamentally sound and tend lean on its normally superior talent. That's not going to work against a team like STA. Going to go out on a limb and predict a Edgewater/STA final with Edgewater pulling the upset, taking the 5A state title!

 

[Fla2014]

I see all four #1 seeds making it to the final four. I think Manatee has a good chance at a state championship this year but it they will be tested for sure.

 

[twc2499]

The interesting thing is if they are going to pair teams by seedings in the semifinals. Which means Region 1 winner will not play Region 2 winner and the same for Region 3 vs Region 4.

The FHSAA states in 4.7.2.2.2 State Semifinals
(a) Dates and Times. See the football webpage at FHSAA.com
(b) Bracketing. Teams will be seeded based on the FHSAA/MaxPreps ranking at conclusion of the regular season.
The one (1) seed will play the four (4) seed and the two (2) seed will play the three (3) seed.
(c) Host Schools. Teams with highest regular season FHSAA/Maxpreps ranking will be designated "Home" team.

So, with that stated not sure if that's correct? According to the brackets it still Regions 1 vs 2 and 3 vs 4 in semifinals.

 

[MarkECannon]

From what I have been told they are going to reseed the teams for the semifinals.

 

[gatorman001]

The interesting thing is if they are going to pair teams by seedings in the semifinals. Which means Region 1 winner will not play Region 2 winner and the same for Region 3 vs Region 4.

The FHSAA states in 4.7.2.2.2 State Semifinals
(a) Dates and Times. See the football webpage at FHSAA.com
(b) Bracketing. Teams will be seeded based on the FHSAA/MaxPreps ranking at conclusion of the regular season.
The one (1) seed will play the four (4) seed and the two (2) seed will play the three (3) seed.
(c) Host Schools. Teams with highest regular season FHSAA/Maxpreps ranking will be designated "Home" team.

So, with that stated not sure if that's correct? According to the brackets it still Regions 1 vs 2 and 3 vs 4 in semifinals.

I thought the exact same thing, but as you noted the brackets indicate traditional parings?

 

[twc2499]

Being a Manatee fan and not playing STA in the semifinals if the Canes can get there is big. Manatee has gone to battle with STA many times over the past 16 years. But this year I believe Manatee can beat them especially at home. I agree with Gatorman that Manatee has the easiest path to the semifinals. But you still have to win to move on!

Region 1
This is a tough region. Barring an upset, I think #1 Niceville will play the winner any of the following teams. #2 Lincoln and #3 Mosley. Sleeper team is #7 Mainland...
Region 2
I believe #1 overall seed Lakeland is the team to beat. But wow, do we have some games in this region! I believe the winner of the #2 Orlando Edgewater and #3 Tampa Bay Tech will challenge Lakeland for a trip to the Finals.
Region 3
Unless #1 Manatee gets upset, they are the clear winners of this region. This is the weakest region by far. But you still have to perform on the field and win to move on. Sleepers maybe are #2 Ft Myers, #3 Riverdale and #4 Immokalee.
Region 4
I really believe #3 STA will come out of this region. I do think they are a little down this year but still very talented and dangerous. The region finals will be #1 Atlantic vs #3 STA. With STA moving on to the semifinals.

My final 4 Semifinals
Niceville at Manatee
STA at Lakeland

Finals
Manatee vs Lakeland

Watch, there will be some big upsets, and all of this will be wrong!!

 

[MarkECannon]

Region 1: Agree with previous. The road to this region runs through Niceville. Always hearing what a tough place to play. Lincoln lost by 3 at Niceville a few weeks ago so if there is a rematch it should be fun. I can tell you Lincoln fans shudder a little bit about going back there. Mosley should be heard from. They lost their first game last week in the final 20 seconds to FSU High.

Region 2: Lakeland is the obvious favorite. Saw them sleep walk to a victory over a strong Lake Mary team. If their receivers weren’t so superior to Lake Mary’s DB’s Lakeland would have lost that game. If the next round is Tampa Bay Tech @ Edgewater that will most likely be the game I attend. Edgewater was like Vanguard but starting even slower before gaining steam. They did go to England and beat an NFL Academy team early. Not sure how to measure that. Tough schedule allowed them to get the 2 seed. TBT has the talent to match anyone in the state but I believe they have not played up to their potential. Probable weakness is a QB that is not always accurate. Only saw them play in Kickoff Classic so can’t really evaluate how they are now.

Region 3: Manatee. Haven’t seen them play but just about everyone I know thinks they are good enough to easily win the region. I love to underestimate them on the board because some Hurricane fans with will come in here and crush me. One of my favorite people in the world, Rich Lansky, is on the staff at Manatee. That by itself makes me a Hurricane fan. Would love to see Fort Myers do well but getting by Manatee would be a tall task for them.

Region 4: Saw STA in their Kickoff Classic and they were dominant and made everything look easy. I still say they are the most complete team I’ve seen this year. Their QB is not what I would consider elite but he is good. Might be a weakness you can point to. Not to sound like a STA hater but I would not mind to have someone knock off STA before the state finals. This may sound kind of envious but I would like to see someone else make it to the state finals for a change.

 

[Silver King]

Ft Myers Offense has three guys who are pretty good. I believe the best was out when North Ft Myers beat them. But I don't see them hanging with Manatee very long. This is a pretty manageable bracket for a team with a hot hand.