Division 1 College Football Woes

[LAZL]

Let’s face it, the consensus among college football fans is that we want an expansion of the playoff system. Some would even like to see something similar to basketball where all 351 Division 1 programs have a shot at winning a championship. After all it’s only fair, right?

I’ve done some research on this by breaking down Division 1 football going back ten seasons (2008-2017) and from a fan’s perspective, I’ve concluded we should be careful what we wish for.

If we look at NCAA Division 1 football, it is structured as follows:

Division 1 (254 teams)

FBS 130 teams (4 team playoff) & FCS 124 teams (24 team playoff)

Most of us know of the great disparity between the FBS and FCS and can agree the talent and depth comparison between the two groups is overwhelmingly in favor of the FBS. Over the past ten seasons the FBS and FCS faced each other 1008 times, with the FBS winning 926 for astounding 0.919 winning percentage. From this data we can conclude the FCS should not be included in an overall Div. 1 playoff format. Most would agree they need to remain separate. This enables us to draw the following conclusion:

The problem fans have lies with the apparent bias within the FBS.

FBS (130 teams)

Power 5 Members 65 teams (4 team playoff)

Non-Power 5 Members 65 teams (left out in the cold)

In attempt to validate the bias I broke down the above 1008 FBS vs FCS contests into groups & ran the numbers which led me to believe the bias may indeed exist. Both groups clearly dominated the FCS.

Power 5 vs. FCS 528-25 (0.949)

Non-Power 5 vs. FCS 401-54 (0.881)

The biggest test was next. Head to head. Power 5 vs. Non Power 5. This will tell the tale and man did it ever. Somewhat surprisingly, the disparity is vast. I was in “Shock & Awe.”

Over the past 10 years (1344 games) the Power 5 is 1086-258 (0.808) against non-Power 5 teams. The dominance is so overwhelming that 95% (62 schools) have less than .500 records vs.The Power 5. In fact 29 of the 65 schools have won less than two games against the Power 5 with 14 teams going winless. Only Boise St, Houston & Cincinnati own winning records. Conversely, 96% (63 Power 5 schools) have winning records vs. the Non-Power 5.

Here are the top 10 in terms of w-l records of non-power 5 vs. Power 5 schools from 2008-2017:

Boise St
15- 9 0.625

Houston
13- 8 0.619

Cinn
27- 20- 0.574

Conn
20- 29 0.408

BYU
19- 30 0.388

Navy
13- 21 0.382

So Fla
18- 32 0.360

No Illinois
7-14 0.333

UCF
8-17 0.320

Toledo
5-12 0.294


After studying this I am now convinced that the current playoff system is better than I originally thought. Though we may want to consider a slight expansion, it has become very clear that we have three distinct entities within Division 1. Basically, when it comes to The Power 5, The Non-Power 5 and the FCS, NCAA Division 1 football has what boxing has…. A Heavyweight Division, a Cruiserweight division and a Light Heavyweight division. And the Cruiserweights need their own playoff system.

I have team by team data that supports the above for anyone who has questions.

 

[gatorman-uf]

Thank you for doing this. I will state before I start that I want an 8 team playoff (5 Power 5 champions, 1 non-power 5 champions, 2 wildcards) and a return to a 11 game schedule with championships played on Thanksgiving.

I already hear the non Power 5 conference people screaming that the only reason the Power 5 does so well, is because they refuse to play the best non-Power 5 teams and even if they do play them they always insist on home games instead of home and homes, so they are never playing on the road.

They will then attack the team records and point to lower ranked Power 5 teams that only play lower ranked non-Power 5 teams to enhance their records. Thus, why so many Power 5 teams win. They will point out that they are not asking for the entire non-Power 5 conference to play in the playoffs, but that one special team when it comes a long and long term statistics cannot account for that team. I don't know if any of this true, but these are the attacks they will use to justify it.

 

[Choctaw_fan]

I agree with Gatorman on how the playoffs should be changed and I also want to go back to an 11 game schedule.

But, I think the big problem is too many FBS schools. Many of those schools are struggling to support a team at the D-1 level and have to take those mercy games to pay for their season. FCS needs to be able to offer full or partial scholarships so that schools want to stay there instead of moving up to FBS. There is great competition and talent in those lower conferences. I watched Carson Wentz play in the championship almost every year and look what he's doing in the NFL! And, frankly, I would rather pay a lower price to see a local lower division team play equal competition. Go UWF!