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Comparison- Old Format vs. New

LAZL

Well-Known Member
Feb 5, 2003
2,244
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This may or may not have significance but I'm going to do a comparison of first round margins of victory/defeat using 2016 as a baseline to see if we indeed have better matchups under the new format. Here's last year's info:

2016 First Round Actual Point Spreads (96 games)

1-9 points 25 games (26%)
10-19 points 18 games (19%)
20-29 points 15 games (16%)
30-39 points 22 games (23%)
40-49 points 10 games (10%)
50-59 points 5 games (5 %)
60+ points 1 game (1%)

Average first round game point differential in 2016 was 23.9.
 
The results should be very interesting. My guess, before this year's first round is played out, is that there will be no statistical difference in the buckets. My reason: there are too many disparities among teams in the different districts that make the playoffs and this will remain regardless of format (too few loaded teams, too many mediocre teams, equals a complete lack of parity which yields lopsided games in ~ 50% of the games). That is a big part of the problem right there. No system will cure this.
 
My reason: there are too many disparities among teams in the different districts that make the playoffs and this will remain regardless of format (too few loaded teams, too many mediocre teams, equals a complete lack of parity which yields lopsided games in ~ 50% of the games). That is a big part of the problem right there. No system will cure this.

While no system can cure it, a system can alleviate the problem. We need a system based on the success of teams, not just the size of teams. When we based the classifications on size, we run into differing teams valuing football differently. Just because they have 2000+ students doesn't mean they have equal talent and dedication to the game.

Instead, we take the top 64 teams according to the LaxIndex (since 1999-2015) (he didn't update 2016) and put them in a 8 districts of 8 (see below). That leaves 364 teams in 3A-7A (shrink by one classification) and we have 91 teams per classification with all of the teams that people want to run away from out of the districts. We put them in a classification (only Madison County is removed due to being 1A). Don't get me wrong, I know that some of these historically good teams are mediocre or below over the past 3-4 years. A couple of the teams are in awkward geographical locations (Glades Central, Vero Beach, North Marion)

We play 2 seasons, 2 teams per district with the worst district performance overall in new OPEN class (7A) will move out. 16 new teams join based off Lazindex or pinkos or another process.

Before anybody gets too worked up over the teams that are in here, remember this is looking at 1999-2015. I know some current teams would get creamed, but I am sure there would be adequate replacements.

If we replicate this across all classes, teams now would face equally talented teams with close games both in season and the playoffs. Nobody would feel like they have no chance for the playoffs, because could make the playoffs.

District 1
Lincoln High School
Amos P. Godby High School
Niceville High School
Pine Forest High School
Pace High School
Pensacola High School
Choctawhatchee High School
Milton High School

District 2
Bolles School
Columbia High School
St Augustine High School
Trinity Christian Academy
Duncan U. Fletcher High School
William M. Raines High School
Edward H. White High School
North Marion High School

District 3
Apopka High School
Mainland High School
Cocoa High School
Edgewater High School
Osceola High School
Lake Brantley High School
Dr. Phillips High School
Merritt Island High School

District 4
Lakeland Senior High School
Armwood High School
Hillsborough High School
HB Plant High School
Jefferson High School
Lake Gibson High School
South Sumter High School
Jesuit

District 5
Naples High School
Venice High School
Southeast High School
Charlotte High School
Glades Central Community High School
Fort Myers High School
Immokalee High School
Manatee High School

District 6
Deerfield Beach High School
Blanche Ely High School
Palm Bay Magnet High School
William T. Dwyer High School
Vero Beach High School
Palm Beach Gardens Community High School
Dillard High School
Atlantic Community High School

District 7
Miami Carol City Senior High School
St.Thomas Aquinas High School
Plantation High School
American Heritage School
Miramar High School
Miami Norland Senior High School
Monsignor Edward Pace High School
Cypress Bay High School

District 8
Booker T. Washington Senior High School
Christopher Columbus High School
Miami Northwestern Senior High
Miami Southridge Senior High School
Miami Killian Senior High School
South Dade Senior High School
Miami Jackson Senior High School
Miami Central Senior High School
 
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