2024 - Most Parity Ever?

[LAZL]

I like to analyze team trends and have done so over the past 24 or 25 years. As we head into the season, this appears to be a year of amazing parity in Florida high school football. The schools throughout class's 5A, 6A & 7A are virtually even in strength. I will be monitoring as the season progresses. While I am excited, it begs the age-old question, why do we have so many classes? Here's the opening Power Rating (potential strength) data for 2024:

Classification	7A	6A	5A	4A	3A	2A	1A	Rural	Ind	SSAA
Teams	66	66	62	66	64	54	49	35	52	62
Avg Power Rnk	123.26	122.89	123.10	120.78	115.60	118.40	111.25	108.02	95.28	91.19
Median Power Rnk	122.24	123.32	122.27	119.43	116.20	117.91	110.87	110.08	95.24	92.09

 

[gatorman001]

Last year with the metro vs suburban split, saw Manatee with teams on it district schedule that this year has those same teams 1 and 2 classifications higher than Manatee this year.? Yet I've heard and read on a number occasions that last year's championships saw more parity in the finals than had been seen in some time.

Going back to the 80's at least for the larger classifications, I believe had on average around 100 teams in those larger classifications. Larger numbers in the upper classifications would do wonders for regular season scheduling, in as far as travel and financial concerns go.....lots of natural rivalries are potentially missed out on because of the limited numbers in these current classifications l. I believe the FHSAA could do a much better job than the final product they typically produce.....bottom line. Without actually being involved in the decision making process, hard for me to believe this the best that can be done.

Wondering using the parity ratings Laz has come up with, if some process might be used allowing teams to petition the FHSAA to move up or down based on its 3 year average of it power ranking and/or median ranking. Or have classifications be based on some weighted combination of student population as well as it's 3 year power/ median ranking?

 

[gatorman001]

Laz, what data goes into developing (Power rating)?

 

[gatorman001]

There are 120 teams currently according to Laz (Power Ratings) at the beginning of the season with a PR between 130 - 160. It breaks down by the FHSAA classifications for Football as follows:

7A - 24 of 66 total teams or 36.36%
6A - 20 of 66 total teams or 30.30%
5A - 20 of 62 total teams or 32.26%
4A - 20 of 66 total teams or 30.30%
3A - 10 of 64 total teams or 15.15%
2A - 12 of 54 total teams or 22.22%
1A - 10 of 49 total teams or 20.41%
Rural - 4 of 35 total teams or 11.43%

To me all of these teams listed below have a unfair competitive advantage over the remaining teams in its particular Classification, and that becomes a even bigger advantage as you move down to the lower Classifications. Especially come playoff time. When you factor in Average PR for each current team in class 7A - 4A is in the lower 120s, 4A -2A is in the 119 to 115 range, and 1A - Rural is below 110. I believe it's time for the FHSAA to consider established PRs as a additional factor when determining classifications for better over-all competitive balance. 60 to 70 percent of the teams in 7A - 5A have no chance in hell to compete for a state title, and 80 - 90 percent of team in 3A - Rural have no chance to compete for a state title with the current structure.

Teams starting the year with power ratings 150 or higher: 6 total Schools
STA (5A) - 158.57
Miami Central (3A) - 154.20
Cocoa (2A) - 153.30
Chaminade (1A) - 152.79
Venice (7A) - 151.30
Lakeland (5A) - 150.82

1 - 7A Schools = 1.52% of all 7A Schools
0 - 6A School = 0% of all 6A Schools
2 - 5A Schools = 3.23% of all 5A Schools
0 - 4A Schools = 0% of all 4A Schools
1 - 3A Schools = 1.56% of all 3A Schools
1 - 2A Schools = 1.85% of all 2A Schools
1 - 1A Schools = 2.04% of all 1A Schools

Teams starting the year with power ratings 140 to 149.99: 33 total Schools
Buchholz (6A) - 149.82
American Heritage (4A) 149.18
Seminole (7A) - 148.79
Christopher Columbus (7A) - 148.18
Edgewater (5A) - 147.76
Miami Norland (4A) - 147.67
Lake Mary (7A) - 146.89
Mainland (5A) - 146.80
Armwood (6A) - 146.44
Orlando Jones (4A) - 145.98
Bartram Trail (6A) - 145.93
Niceville (5A) - 145.50
Tampa Bay Tech (5A) - 144.50
ST Augustine (4A) - 144.05
Tampa Jesuit (4A) - 143.87
Jax Boles (2A) - 143.49
Homestead (6A) - 143.28
Pine Forest (4A) - 142.76
Miami NW (3A) - 142.75
Naples (4A) - 142.53
Clearwater CC (1A) - 142.32
Treasure Coast (7A) - 142.02
Choctaw (4A) - 141.99
Florida High - FSU (2A) - 141.73
Mandarin (6A) - 141.73
Trinity Christian Jax (1A) - 141.56
Vero Beach (7A) - 141.23
Rockledge (4A) - 141.19
Lincoln, Tallahassee (5A) - 140.81
Cardinal Newman (1A) - 140.20
Berkley Prep (2A) - 140.20
Miami Washington (2A) - 140.14
Bradford (2A) - 140.06

5 - 7A Schools = 7.58% of all 7A Schools
5 - 6A Schools = 7.58% of all 6A Schools
5 - 5A Schools = 8.06% of all 5A Schools
9 - 4A Schools = 13.64% of all 4A Schools
1 - 3A School = 1.56% of all 3A Schools
5 - 2A Schools = 9.26% of all 2A Schools
3 - 1A Schools = 6.12% of all 1A Schools

Teams starting the year with a 130 to 139.99 Power rating - 81 total Schools

Cardinal Gibbons (2A) - 139.83
Deland (7A) - 139.73
Apopka (7A) - 139.69
Coconut Creek (5A) - 139.18
South Sumter (3A) - 139.06
Vanguard (4A) - 139.05
Hawthorne (Rural) - 138.98
Madison County (Rural) - 138.89
Lake Wales (4A) - 138.89
Lake Minneola (6A) - 138.83
Osceola (Kissimmee) - (6A) - 138.80
Western (7A) - 138.77
Wakulla (3A) - 138.68
Ponte Verda (5A) - 138.59
Pace (6A) - 138.50
Bishop Verot (2A) - 138.34
Pensacola Catholic (2A) - 138.33
Miramar (5A) - 138.31
Escambia (4A) - 138.26
Benjamin (1A) - 137.94
Riverview, Sarasota (7A) - 137.94
Wharton (6A) - 137.84
Raines (3A) - 137.66
Creekside (7A) - 137.34
Atlantic (5A) - 137.19
Miami Palmetto (7A) - 137.04
Sebring (5A) - 136.90
Plant (6A) - 136.71
Winter Park (7A) - 136.47
Eau Gallie (3A) - 136.16
West Orange (7A) - 135.86
Carrollwood Day (1A) - 135.82
Manatee (5A) - 135.14
Calvary Christian (2A) - 135.10
Wekiva (6A) - 134.99
Heritage (5A) - 134.89
Oviedo (6A) - 134.84
Bishop Moore (3A) - 134.83
Columbia (4A) - 134.76
Trinity Catholic (1A) - 134.75
Dillard (4A) - 134.39
Sumner (7A) - 134.31
Chiles (5A) - 134.20
Gaither (5A) - 134.20
Riverside (4A) - 134.06
Oakleaf (6A) - 133.68
Dr. Phillips (7A) - 133.68
Port Charlotte (4A) - 133.53
Navarre (6A) - 133.29
Monsignor Pace (2A) - 133.21
Dunbar (4A) - 133.14
University (7A) - 133.06
West Florida (3A) - 132.96
Palm Beach Central (7A) - 132.90
Spruce Creek (7A) - 132.83
Olympia (7A) - 132.72
Hillsborough (4A) - 132.50
Lake Gibson (5A) - 132.49
Fletcher (6A) - 132.20
Mosley (5A) - 132.17
Pahokee (Rural) - 132.12
Durant (6A) - 132.06
Largo (6A) - 132.02
Miami Southridge (6A) - 132.00
Plantation (4A) - 131.73
First Baptist (1A) - 131.70
Ely (5A) - 131.60
Monarch (6A) - 131.56
Boone (7A) - 131.40
Miami Edison (1A) - 131.22
Dunnellon (3A) - 131.13
Tampa Catholic (2A) - 131.13
Williston (Rural) - 131.10
Fleming Island (5A) - 131.08
Ed White (4A) - 130.96
Ocoee (7A) - 130.78
University Christian (1A) - 130.71
Winter Haven (7A) - 130.41
South Dade (7A) - 130.31
Crestview (6A) - 130.06
Baker County (3A) - 130.03

18 - 7A Schools = 27.27% of all 7A Schools
15 - 6A Schools = 22.73% of all 6A Schools
13 - 5A Schools = 24.19% of all 5A Schools
11 - 4A Schools = 16.67% of all 4A Schools
8 - 3A Schools = 12.50% of all 3A Schools
6 - 2A Schools = 11.11% of all 2A Schools
6 - 1A Schools = 12.24% of all 1A Schools
4 - Rural Schools = 11.43% of all Rural Schools

 

[LAZL]

gatorman001,
Good question. Without going into too much detail (I don't want to give away all my secrets), each game has a Game Value and a Significance Factor based on the strength of each team.
For example:
Team A has a power ranking of 100. Team B has a power ranking of 90. This means Team A should be expected to win by 10 pts.

Game Value: This is the baseline value of the game. In this case, we have a value of 100+90/2 or 95.

Significance Factor:
The factor applied to the final score. This is calculated using the difference between the two teams.
Team B =90/Team A= 100. Therefore, the Significance Factor of this game will be 90% of the final score.

Let's say, the game is played and Team B wins in an upset by 3 pts.
To calculate each team's performance:

1) Team B won by 3 points
2) 3 pts * 90% (Game Significance Factor) = 2.7 which becomes the final score.
3) 2.7 divided by 2 = +1.35 for Team B and -1.35 for Team A
4) We add the 1.35 to 95 (Game Value) for Team B and we subtract the 1.35 from 95 for Team A.

Therefore, Team B's ranking for the game was 96.35 and Team A's ranking for the game was 93.65.

There's much more to it but this is the premise for the Power Ranking Process.

 

[gatorman001]

gatorman001,
Good question. Without going into too much detail (I don't want to give away all my secrets), each game has a Game Value and a Significance Factor based on the strength of each team.
For example:
Team A has a power ranking of 100. Team B has a power ranking of 90. This means Team A should be expected to win by 10 pts.

Game Value: This is the baseline value of the game. In this case, we have a value of 100+90/2 or 95.

Significance Factor:
The factor applied to the final score. This is calculated using the difference between the two teams.
Team B =90/Team A= 100. Therefore, the Significance Factor of this game will be 90% of the final score.

Let's say, the game is played and Team B wins in an upset by 3 pts.
To calculate each team's performance:

1) Team B won by 3 points
2) 3 pts * 90% (Game Significance Factor) = 2.7 which becomes the final score.
3) 2.7 divided by 2 = +1.35 for Team B and -1.35 for Team A
4) We add the 1.35 to 95 (Game Value) for Team B and we subtract the 1.35 from 95 for Team A.

Therefore, Team B's ranking for the game was 96.35 and Team A's ranking for the game was 93.65.

There's much more to it but this is the premise for the Power Ranking Process.

I was wondering more along the lines of a define timeline that you back, when you come up with the start of the season Power Rating?

 

[LAZL]

It's just math. Plain and simple. Weighted moving average of the past few seasons with heavy emphasis on last season. It definitely has a few flaws; however, I have to start somewhere and its usually proven to be a safe place to begin.

The following topics are not concluded when coming up with my opening rankings:

1) Coaching changes & associated issues
2) # of returning starters
3) Injuries
4) Spring contests
5) Kickoff Classics
6) Grievances with governing bodies